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Understanding the Accuracy of Variation Analysis Methods

Robert Cvetko, Boeing / Rocketdyne, Canoga Park, CA
Presented June 15, 2000 at the ADCATS 2000 Conference

A study of current assembly variation analysis methods is presented, with side-by-side numerical comparisons. Methods include:
  -Monte Carlo Simulation
  -Method of System Moments
  -Linearized Vector Analysis
  -Design of Experiments
New metrics are presented for gaging the accuracy of, not only the analysis methods, but also the problem information without knowing the exact answer. Matching the accuracy of the problem and the analysis method allows for simple models and an estimate of confidence for the results. A framework for choosing the best method for different analysis situations summarizes the findings.

Bio
Graduated in 1997 (MS in Mechanical Engineering and MBA). Currently engineer at Boeing/Rocketdyne in Canoga Park, CA. Leader of Systems Engineering Producibility Team, which is mainly involved with variation analysis, process simulation, and risk management (development and production risk). Programs supported: Space Shuttle Main Engine, International Space Station, RS-68 engine (Delta IV), X-33 Linear Aero-spike engine and Kinetic Energy Weapon (KEW).

 

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